🔗 Share this article

For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to take a resolute stance on Ukraine. After issuing threats of "severe ramifications" during the summer should Putin carried on obstructing peace negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted substantial restrictions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision significantly hindered the Russian leader's capability to fund his military invasion in the region.

But, via his recently unveiled detailed peace plan for the conflict, which was created by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly approach.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially reward Putin for occupying Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite strong proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", much of the initiative actually compromise that same sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, like handing Russia a part of Ukraine's soil will satisfy the leader. Yet, Russia's war is not only about dominating a damaged area of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it stops acts as an enticing example for the Russian citizens of the democratic leadership that his increasing autocracy withholds them.

Border Surrenders

Although keeping in status the currently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would compel the nation to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, providing Russian forces a clear route to Kyiv should he later opt to restart the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Then, in a action that would facilitate future hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of 600,000. Significantly, the initiative places no similar limits on Russian forces.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate leadership as radicals, Trump's proposal states: "Any radical doctrine and actions must be condemned and banned." Seemingly to highlight this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by allowing elections in his own country.

Defense Assurances

To be sure, the proposal includes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet taking into account that Putin has violated comparable accords in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia committed to a ceasefire and a handback of captured land in eastern Ukraine to Kyiv – why should we have confidence in Russia now?

This explains Ukraine has been so adamant on western protection assurances. Although the initiative warns of a "immediate unified defense action" should the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the specifics range from vague to concerning. The plan would not only prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Putin from rebuilding his weakened military, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

An additional supplementary accord apparently would provide the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an attack endangering the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a military response. But in contrast to a strong national defense – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as Trump, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not