Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Propels Aston Villa's Surprising Push for Glory
Just eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source of the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – but currently the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.