Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.